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Monday, September 29, 2008

What’s Left to Decide? An October Surprise, Maybe?

After watching the first presidential debate, it's becoming crystal-clear that no matter what, the majority of Republicans will always hail McCain the victor and Democrats who support Sen. Obama are emphatic that he has more intelligence and a grasp of the issues and that he won the debate quite handily.

It's becoming increasingly clear that none of us has any idea what the outcome will be on Election Day. You can listen to the pundits, so-called experts, and the camps of the candidates themselves and still, I believe, this is a razor’s-edge close race.

Advocates of Obama have no intention of voting for anyone but the senator from Illinois; McCain's supporters are equally steadfast. There has been a lot of hype over this election, with Obama potentially becoming the first American black president and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin potentially becoming the first female vice president. However, there's no doubt that the Palin fervor has worn off, and in this allegedly progressive country, many are finding it amusing that Palin is being attacked as being underqualified on the basis of her gender. What's even more shocking are the accusations that she's not a woman because she doesn't believe in abortion. Apparently, we are so progressive in this country that we presume to tell people how they should think based upon their outward appearance.

We must admit, though, that Palin's interviews of late have been less compelling and in some instances less than flattering. If she doesn't step up her substantive game in the upcoming vice presidential debate, it may completely blow up in their faces. As compelling as the first presidential debate was, the McCain camp has to be on the edge about what to expect from Palin in Tuesday's debate.

Due to the staunchness of the supporters, all of this additional campaigning is to sway undecided voters. Who in the world are these undecided voters? What on earth is left to decide? Do you actually think between now and November that these candidates are going to say something new and revolutionary?

What are you undecided voters waiting for? Are you trying to convince us that you haven't seen enough in the campaign, debates and other forums? I think most have decided and are unwilling publicly to admit it. If you're one of the so-called undecided voters, write and tell me: What are you hoping to see that is going to close this voting deal for you?

Please, anyone, what in God's name is left for any of these candidates to do that will swing you to their camp? Ooh, wow, there could be another October presidential election bombshell — we are always treated to one in the highly anticipated month of October — but will it be enough to affect the race and reveal a clear winner?

Debate Dos and Don’ts

There’s still no word on whether tonight’s presidential debate will proceed as planned.

Personally, I feel that if Sen. McCain doesn't show, it will prove disastrous for his campaign. His calls to put “country first” and return to Washington to help broker a deal earlier this week was the proper, presidential thing to do. But yesterday’s antics have caused a new wrinkle in this vignette, and the appearance has shifted almost 180 degrees to where both his and Obama’s insertions are having an almost deleterious effect.

I could write an entirely separate column on the optics of yesterday’s meltdown at the White House, but for now, I want to highlight a brief playbook on what each candidate must do tonight:

McCain:

Elaborate on Afghanistan — There’s no cleaner or clearer link with the war on terror and in Iraq right now than Afghanistan. And frankly, the Democrats have scored a lot of political points bashing the Bush administration and Republicans on the “real war in Afghanistan.”

While very small and myopic, they do have a point. And we all know where McCain stands on Iraq, so what he should do tonight is contrast and compare that vision with what he hopes to do in Afghanistan. This also lets him return to the one thing Americans want most out of the Middle East — Osama bin Laden’s head on a platter. Every person I know thinks OBL is hiding in some cave in Afghanistan, just there for the taking. McCain should address that fact and lay out the significance of Afghanistan as part of his larger plan in that part of the world.

Lay out the beginnings of a McCain Doctrine — McCain doesn’t need to coin some catchy foreign policy phrase tonight, such as “containment,” but he does need to discuss how his vision will restore America’s place in the world — both in a humanitarian sense as well as reasserting its economic hegemony through trade and a stronger dollar. Yes, our economic situation has roiled markets across the globe, and touching (albeit briefly) on the economy tonight allows the senator to get a free plug in for his economic vision — an area where he is decidedly weaker.

Keep his cool — Put simply, when McCain gets mad, he looks bad. He looks old, even. So he must not clench his jaw when Obama says some outlandish things. But at the same time, he can’t smile that Reagan “there you go again” smile either, because that looks condescending.

Sen. Obama:

Be broad, yet specific — If there was one criticism of his grand speech in Germany earlier this year, it was the fact that Sen. Obama spoke largely in glowing terms (mostly about every country but his own), yet offered very few specifics on how America was going to play a prominent role in foreign policy. He needs to borrow a page from Sen. McCain’s playbook and assert that America can and should lead in the most dangerous parts of the world.

As for being broad, Obama needs to show he has a fundamental understanding of countries around the world. So mention Korea, Iran, Venezuela, and then weave them together in a larger vision for the world in an Obama administration. Right now, when it comes to foreign policy, the majority of Americans just know Obama wants to bring the troops home. That’s not leadership, and it falls short of having true foreign policy bona fides.

Don ’t ramble — This is one area where Obama sounds and acts more like Joe Biden than any other. His lofty, rambling rhetoric may work on the stump or in a steamy church on Sunday morning, but it won’t work during the debates. Obama needs to answer the question, and then allow viewers to see some of the thought process that went into his decision. But these are debates, not speeches, and there’s little time to massage answers like we all did with our college term papers.

Sound less like a Democrat — I’ve noticed lately that Sen. Obama is sounding more and more like your run-of-the-mill Democrat. They’re not exactly known to be foreign policy experts when you look back through the years. No, what makes him unique and different is his supposedly “fresh” vision for the world, so he needs to exhibit more of that this evening.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

No Time for ‘Politics as Usual’

The U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of a cliff — with a hungry bear nipping at its heels. Yet, we cannot turn around and return from where we came — that would be as disastrous as stepping off the cliff.

We have but two choices — turn right or turn left. However, we have no time to contemplate what might await us at either turn. There is no time to debate what the optimal solution might be because stepping off the cliff or awaiting the bear to come upon us are not viable options.

Bush, Paulson and Bernanke have put forward a monumental and historic plan that many seem eager to debate or find flaw with. It might not be hard to do — but what politician can’t find flaw in the other party’s plan? The problem is the crisis facing the U.S. economy and the American public is so dire that such rhetoric will surely push the economy over the cliff or render us helpless to the fast approaching bear.

Business as usual on Capitol Hill is not an option. Any inaction or delay will have the same unimaginable end result for the economy. The leadership behind the plan is showing that they are doing what is needed — at least in the short term — to prevent imminent economic disaster. We can debate how we got here and who is to blame at a later date — we do not have time for that now.

The principal element of the proposed government solution is that the government is investing in — not simply bailing out — defaulting loans, including mortgages. This is critical to restoring confidence in the capital markets and unfreezing the credit markets, which are the foundation for keeping businesses viable.

While it may seem that Wall Street and its executives are being bailed out as well, that too is open for debate at a later date. In the short term, we cannot afford not to take action. We cannot afford to succumb to politics as usual. Keep in mind that the architects of this plan were very savvy to structure this as an investment because it creates considerable upside or potential profit over the long term.

There is so much that we and our political leaders can argue about regarding a $700 billion economic plan. It is not surprising given the crisis we are facing. But there is a time and place for everything. Now is the time to do what needs to be done because by not doing anything our fate is that we're quickly approaching another Great Depression.

Looking Presidential

The McCain camp has just announced that it is suspending the campaign and getting down to the business of the country and this debilitating financial crisis we’re facing.

Now we’re talking! That’s the most presidential move I’ve seen since the Russian invasion of Georgia. I’d be willing to wager that McCain made this call on his own.

That’s the type of guy he is. Damn the consequences, there are some things more important than rushing around the country merely talking about this issue and spewing a lot of populist rhetoric.

The timing couldn’t be more perfect. After endless hours on Capitol Hill, a weak Bush administration is having trouble selling this plan even to members of its own party, let alone Democrats — who never miss an opportunity to pummel the POTUS on behalf of the little guy.

I like this play by McCain. But I honestly don’t think it’s calculated. We’re in a mess, and the best way to steer us out of this nosedive is to sit in a chair with the country’s leaders and get up to speed on options.

Isn’t that what we would expect from either one of the candidates when they’re president? So why would Obama not follow McCain’s lead now? If he doesn’t, he’s traded another day of politicking for God-knows-what in the financial markets.

It’s time to start looking presidential on this issue, even if some on the campaign trail aren’t acting that way …

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

America Must Admit Recession

Armstrong Williams says America needs to recognize it is in an economic recession and Americans should exercise personal accountability.

The Great American Bailout of Wall Street

It seems that we all can take a collective sigh of relief now that the U.S. government is stepping in to bail out Wall Street from its corrupt schemes over the past decade.

But be sure that the government does not want to play this game. This stunning move by the leaders of our country was the response to executives on Wall Street warning of a complete financial collapse that could have made the events in the 1920s seem tame.

I see that the wizards of Wall Street are held to the same standards as weathermen — they can be wrong, very wrong, but still get paid for a job poorly done. The difference is weathermen can do nothing about Mother Nature and are prisoners of her whims. By contrast, Wall Street executives are rewarded to orchestrate ways to make millions — and even billions — of dollars for themselves, put our financial system at risk, and then leave carnage behind.

Just think about it: They will get to keep their billions of dollars in bonuses and there is absolutely nothing regulators, or anyone, for that matter, can do in demanding it back. Sadly, it was not too long ago that headlines in the news touted that Wall Street bonuses would be down from tens of millions to millions. Woe unto Wall Street. Thank you, American taxpayer. When did we ever have any say in owing these corrupt financial institutions?

But this story is not uncommon. I remember as a child at school that chaos would ensue in the classroom when the teacher left. It seems that Wall Street is no better behaved when they don’t follow the rules or lament about being overly regulated. Food fight, anyone?

Thursday, September 18, 2008

It’s Time for Some Specifics

With the announcement recently of the federal bailout of insurance titan AIG, this country’s financial house continues to shake on shifting sands.

That decision marks the fifth major company where the Feds have had to step in and exercise damage control. I have to be candid when I say I’m disappointed in the anemic responses from our two presidential contenders. I know these are heady issues with a lot of complex, moving parts and econometric repercussions, but that’s what leadership is all about — stepping in and calling some shots. It’s the same scenario and expectation of our candidates when they spoke up regarding Russia’s invasion of Georgia. They each made a specific, compelling case for their respective sides, and let the public decide which plan made the most sense.

On this domestic crisis, I’m really only hearing more political pabulum. I think Sen. Obama said “Wall Street greed” for the 79th time in three days yesterday. And you can bet he said more than that in the tony Beverly Hills homes of the mega-wealthy last night while Lehman employees packed it in.

It’s high time we heard some specific policy proposals from Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain. Just how would they “end corporate greed” that got us in this mess? If it took the better part of 16 months to figure out where, exactly, this all began, do they honestly think putting a stop to corporate golden parachutes and allowing more transparency in the system are the magical cures?

C’mon. To his credit, Sen. McCain was calling for some massive reforms to Fannie and Freddie as early as 2005. That counts for something in my book, because it shows he’s paying attention.

But let’s check all the populist happy-talk at the door now and start issuing some well-conceived plans on cleaning up this financial mess. After all, both of these guys say they’re ready to lead on day one. Well, it looks like you have your shot, about 63 days early …

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Simplify Laws

Surely, good laws and regulations are essential in ensuring orderly societal direction and providing for the public good. A just, sound legal system can, in many ways, foster entrepreneurship and international trade. And by protecting the rights of minorities, they exemplify the best that Western civilization has to offer.

One idea for simplification would be to abolish progressive taxation and institute a single flat tax on all personal and business income. The Bible teaches us to tithe 10 percent of our income. It does not ask one person to tithe more of his income if he is rich and less of his income if he is poor. By tithing 10 percent, each pays to the common trust an equal proportion of his means. This practice alone would virtually eliminate the need for the army of accountants, tax lawyers and government agencies dedicated to enforcing the laws of this country.

The second approach would be to simplify the legal process. A common citizen should not need to hire a lawyer simply to enforce a contract or vindicate some other legal right. He should be able to enter a court of law with the full confidence that his argument will be heard.

Dismissive tort judgments against corporations should also be eliminated. Of course, corporations should have to pay compensation for wrongs committed in the course of doing business, but the consequences should be foreseeable, fair and closely tailored to redressing the harm committed. As it stand now, class-action lawsuits and excessive jury awards end up making lawyers rich at the expense of justice itself. They create bitter, intractable legal battles that tie up court resources and increase the complexity of the system.

Less Government is the Answer

Promising every person in America a college education will not necessarily solve our talent dilemma.

As it stands now, we are forced to either export many of our technical industries abroad or rely on a broken immigration bureaucracy to import talent to America. Meanwhile, the rest of the developed world and much of the developing world has far surpassed America in developing the math and science talent needed to keep us competitive.

Assuring that everyone, irrespective of talent or dedication, can have access to a college education does not solve this problem. Rather, imposing rigorous standards in early education assures that students’ talents and abilities are nurtured and honed before they reach the college level.

As it stands, there are more than enough private and public resources to ensure that those who are qualified have a decent opportunity to go to college. The problem with our education really exists on the primary and secondary levels, where social promotion and under-resourced teachers have left our children behind the curve.

Finally, in assessing our government, we must think to the principles we expect of ourselves as individuals. We must stop to consider whether the love of leisure, worldly acclaim and personal fortune are more attractive to us than love of country, personal accountability and respect for our spirit. We should not look to our future in the pop icons of today, which will very soon be utterly forgotten, but in the timeless, disembodied principles that our creator has instilled within us to help guide us in times of turbulence and peril.

Monday, September 15, 2008

We are in uncharted financial crisis waters.

We are in uncharted financial crisis waters.

In my 20 years in the financial communities, I've never seen so many major financial institutions going belly-up in such a short and record amount of time.

Let's call the roll: Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae, Merrill Lynch and (rumor now has it) WAMU and AIG.

This is like the worst hangover you've ever had from binge drinking at a college party. The cause of this, in my judgment, started with an overinflated real estate market. Then the balloon burst and the collateral damage included homeowners with burdensome mortgages and the financial institutions that participated, both directly and indirectly, in real estate financing.

The culprits in the real estate boom included the U.S government, which gave its implicit guarantees to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, thereby causing them to make poor credit decisions and become overleveraged; the banking regulators who forced financial institutions to write down mortgages that were below collateral value but still performing and thereby impaired the capital of the financial institutions; the Wall Street financial institutions, which encouraged improvident lending standards and underwrote and sold the resulting debt to trusting investors who believed their securities had better underlying collateral and credit than they did; and, lastly, the American homeowners, who took the bait of easy money and acquired more real estate than they could afford.

In other words, you can pass this blame and shame to our entire governing society that permitted and watched as this nightmare unfolded. This didn't occur overnight; it occurred over a period of 10 to 20 years. Which basically means it will take time for the market to correct the problems generated by this crisis. How much time? If I knew the answer, I would be the wealthiest man on the planet.

Mayday! Mayday! Abandon ship! Our financial institutions and markets are sinking, with your investments and savings along with them. Abandon ship.

L.A. Killing Fields

Is justice an anomaly in the illegal immigration debate?

If you live in a sanctuary city it certainly is. In regard to the police, a sanctuary city is premised on a “don’t ask, don’t tell” philosophy.

How does this play out in practice? If an illegal immigrant is arrested, no one will know because immigration status will never come up in the conversation, resulting in the release of dangerous illegal immigrants on the American public. The Shaw family of Los Angeles knows this scenario all too well.

Jamiel Shaw, a 17-year-old all-around standout athlete and model citizen, was recklessly gunned down by 19-year-old Pedro Espinoza in Los Angeles. Espinoza, an illegal immigrant and member of the 18th Street gang, gunned Shaw down without reason. Most troubling is the fact that he had been released from county jail after serving time for assault with a deadly weapon.

Pedro Espinoza’s motive for killing Jamiel Shaw is clear. BK — an acronym for Black Killer— was tattooed on his neck with the B crossed out.

The crossed-out B is his claim of having killed black people. For these natural-born assassins, part of the initiation is to go out and randomly kill someone who is black for no reason at all.

This incident and many similar to this should never happen in this country. Espinoza, who was also raised in the American juvenile system, should have been deported early on due to his run-ins with the law.

Sanctuary cities are visibly a threat to our national security. Deadly and criminally intent illegal immigrants should not have a right to stay in America. Antonio Villaraigosa, the mayor of Los Angeles, has no answer for the Jamiel Shaw family. He is clearly playing to his base. After all, Los Angeles has the second-highest population of Mexicans behind Mexico City.

The City of Angels often hears chants from this community that Los Angeles was stolen from them and they're determined to take it back by any means necessary.

Sad to say, the Shaw family and many other families are facing an uphill battle in California. Regardless, their stories needs to be known, so that others who live in cities on the verge of turning sanctuary will fight back.

Friday, September 12, 2008

It’s the States that Matter Most

There’s no question the post-convention bounce Republicans enjoyed exceeded insider expectations, even mine. And as the days out on the hustings drag on, and Sarah Palin heads back to Alaska, several in Washington are wondering: Just how long is the shelf life on the McCain-Palin lead?

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll today shows the race again in a dead heat, tied at 48, including leaners. But even if the other nationwide polls are accurate, and John McCain has a 2-to-3-point lead, it doesn’t really matter unless those national numbers start translating into McCain pulling ahead of Obama in key battleground states.

Sen. Obama was right yesterday when he said that, on a state-by-state analysis, he’s looking pretty good on the path to the presidency; consider that in order for McCain to win, he needs to hold all of the states that went red for George Bush. That means states like Iowa need to vote Republican this year, but that’s not likely, given McCain’s deep and vocal opposition to ethanol, the lifeblood of Iowa farmers.

And then there’s talk that Sen. McCain could actually win the state that resurrected his primary campaign — New Hampshire. Think again … a CNN-Time poll has Obama leading McCain by six points (51-45 percent). In New Mexico, another key swing state won by Bush in 2004, McCain finally has a lead, but only recently did he pull ahead, and it’s within the margin of error (49-47 percent).

The point here is the nationwide bounce the McCain campaign is enjoying of late will amount to nothing if that same enthusiasm doesn’t trickle down to the states that tip the scales in the Electoral College. Sen. McCain’s team knows that; but if they’re fighting for ground that should have been theirs from day one (Virginia, North Carolina, etc.) then their job remains that much more difficult as the clock ticks toward Election Day.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Palin Factor

Gov. Palin’s strengths:

1) Palin connects with working-class white women, the same group that delivered nine of 14 primaries to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in the primary stretch run.

2) Palin, with multiple young children at home, connotes motherhood and family; this provides armor, which the Democrats will find tough to pierce. We all have mothers, most of whom we adore, and would never openly criticize.

3) Palin closes the “history” gap; her success is barrier-breaking; this deflates the significance of a Barack Obama presidency.

4) The Democrats are foreclosed from attacking Palin on experience, as Sen. Obama’s (D-Ill.) paucity of statewide experience and absence of executive experience insulate her.

5) The natural arrogance of many Democratic partisans is put on display. They face the potentially fatal quandary of needing the support of working-class white women, but being disconnected from them stylistically, linguistically and culturally.

6) Palin “doubles down” on change: creating a “change ticket” in a change election. It also says that with their first presidential-level decisions, Obama opted for the status quo, while McCain made a bold, change-oriented move.

Furthermore, there are only three major hurdles left for Palin to confront: 1) the debates (which could doom or elevate Palin); 2) an “October surprise”; and 3) the ground game (about which I’m concerned, as Obama obviously has a more entrenched and disciplined grassroots organization). However, McCain just got the “enthusiasm injection” to help build his own grassroots effort.

An Interesting Twist

Who says President Bush is irrelevant and only a burden to anyone who dares invoke his name? I’ve just finished watching our commander in chief brief the country on the amazing progress our American military continues to make in Iraq. In fact, the progress is so pronounced that another 8,000 soldiers are headed home in the coming weeks. That’s policy with results, and while it certainly helps make John McCain look more prophetic by the day, it poses an interesting dilemma for the Obama camp.

News flash to Sen. Obama — the surge worked! You’re no less a man if you admit it now, and it may even bolster your efforts, to borrow a phrase from JFK, whom the Democrats often like to quote. Yes, folks, the truth is not determined by how many times a phrase is repeated. So Sen. Obama should just face facts and quit this nonsense of denying the surge was responsible for any good deed we’re now witnessing in Iraq.

I suspect he’ll try and change the subject today and in the coming days, but the imagery of troops disembarking from transport planes on American soil in the coming weeks will force Obama’s hand to come to grips with a foreign policy initiative he never fully understood in the first place.

The Strategic Inconsequence of The Race Vote

I am often on “The Russ Parr Morning Show” discussing Sen. Barack Obama's (D-Ill.) fortunes and misfortunes during this presidential campaign. What is intriguing about Parr's audience is that voting for the Democratic Party is seen uniformly as helpful to blacks as a race.

Because American blacks spend much of their time in their own communities, they somehow convince themselves that they constitute a huge voting bloc in America. What's more fascinating is that I do not know of any other community in America, Jewish, Latino, Asian or white, that would, overwhelmingly, to the tune of 90 percent-plus, vote for someone just because they assume others with the same skin color or history of discrimination share their economic, cultural and social interests.

When you really get down to brass tacks and the outcome of the presidential election, the black vote drama and their support of the first American black who has a chance of becoming president is largely overrated.

Everyone knows that blacks would overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidate irrespective of his or her race. And why should the McCain campaign waste valuable resources, especially considering Obama's huge popularity among that voting bloc? The Republicans knew going into this election that they needed another strategy to win. You would think by now that blacks would have figured out why former Presidents Reagan, Bush I and Bush II won despite losing their vote.

It is actually quite simple. Republicans predict success based on their ability to appeal to other minority voting blocs, including women and Latinos, not based on their race or gender, but by appealing to their other interests; whether those are economic, cultural or other.

Given the serious possibility that the Republican Party will be successful in picking off members of the so-called Democratic base, it would behoove the black community to stop putting all their eggs into one basket.

Because if they do now what they've done in the past, and Sen. Obama loses, they will find themselves left out in the cold once again.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Gratitude, Humility and Confidence: McCain Makes His Case

Sen. John McCain’s (Ariz.) address before the Republican convention last night was both tough and touching.

His appeal appeared quite distinct from the fancy speechifying that we saw at the Democratic convention. In many respects it was a lament. He lamented the mistakes his own party had made when it came to power and betrayed the public’s trust.

It was an apology. He apologized for his own character defects, and showed through his own example how the struggles he faced in life taught him to overcome them. Along the way, he learned to become grateful for the challenges; he gained the wisdom to view setbacks as opportunities to learn and grow.

We learned from Sen. McCain that the way of the warrior has more to do with the choice of attitude than the choice of weapon. We learned that what characterizes a soldier’s bravery is not his willingness to die, but his choice of a cause worth dying for.

This choice, this fundamental choice we face when we are born into this world of struggle, comes from a deeper place. That struggle, we learned, comes from compassion; it comes from the nurturing and direction we receive as children from our parents. It is a choice that we make, not out of need, but out of love.

With a humility born of struggle, McCain was able to effectively communicate his love for this country. Only when a person has truly changed his heart will God change his circumstances. The same is true of our nation. We derive the confidence we need to fight for our ideals, to live up to our promises, and to reach our aspirations, from a heart that has been strengthened by compassion.

This lesson, given last night in front of the nation, was one we should heed, irrespective of whom we might ultimately vote for in November.

Palin’s Going to Be Tough for the Democrats

MINNEAPOLIS — Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s debut as John McCain’s vice presidential candidate showcased a formidable challenger who is going to be tough for the Democrats to counter. Not only did she look the crowd in the eye and speak with unabashed authority, she really seemed to connect with the audience in a way only special politicians, a la Bill Clinton, can do. She is unquestionably energetic, smart, witty and appealing as a candidate. Democrats who underestimate her do so to their extreme detriment.

Palin, while new to the issues facing America, nonetheless presented a compelling case for why her background is as good, if not better, than that of Barack Obama. It was impressive in the way she was able to convince delegates that her experiences as a mother, mayor and governor of an out-of-the-way state made her actually more qualified than a senator and “community organizer.”

This was not easy to accomplish rhetorically, but she seemed to do so in an almost folksy, unscripted manner. Whether undecided voters buy her argument or not remains to be seen, but certainly Gov. Palin has helped energize the Republican base. She has lit the dry tinder, and it remains to be seen whether, between now and Election Day, the fire catches on around the country.

By all accounts, Palin’s speech was a triumph for the Republicans, and may have just saved the ticket. Of course, a long race has yet to be run, but Palin’s presence draws some of the media eyes off of Obama and his historic achievement to an equally compelling story on the Republican side. At this point, it’s anyone’s race to win.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

In Attempting to Straddle Diverging Aisles, Lieberman Risks Tearing His Britches

ST. PAUL — Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-Conn.) speech last night at the Republican convention obviously has the Obama campaign and the Democratic hierarchy reeling and seething about his direct assault and indictment of the Democratic Party and its presidential nominee.

If that wasn't enough, he made it clear that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has the credentials and experience necessary as John McCain's vice presidential choice and made no mention of his colleague Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.). Give Lieberman credit, for there's no doubt that it took guts and deep resentment of his party to deliver his cutting remarks last night.

Sen. Lieberman’s speech must have been very difficult for him. After all, in return for crossing the aisle and being ostracized by the Democrats, having lost the Democratic primary in his own state and having to run as an Independent, he surely expected to be awarded the vice presidency. But instead, facing strong opposition from the Republican base to having a liberal (read: Jewish liberal) leading the party, Sen. McCain, despite his obvious fondness for Lieberman, felt compelled to go in another direction.

During his long and storied Senate career, Sen. Lieberman stood up for liberal social causes, while carving a niche as a hawk on national security issues. Lieberman was so endeared of liberal Democrats, after all, that they selected him to undergird Al Gore’s presidential bid in 2000.

Lieberman’s problem at this point is that domestic issues and national security concerns are now seen by the electorate as being so at odds with each other that Americans are faced with choosing one to the detriment of the other. It may not be possible any longer to make such a strong stand on national security while caucusing as a member of the party whose stated mission going forward is to turn swords into plowshares.

Similarly, despite having the personal integrity and dogged strength to reconcile these competing aims, Lieberman may not be able to find a home in the Republican Party once his usefulness as a thorn in the Democrats’ side has expired. Indeed, whether he knows it or not — his somber, almost funereal demeanor at the Republican convention suggests he is not naïve — Lieberman may have reached the end of his line as far as his political career is concerned.

New Orleans: The New Atlantis

Stop Trying to Rebuild a City That is Being Reclaimed by the Sea

ST. PAUL — While many people have dismissed Al Gore and his ilk as tree-hugging liberals bent on curbing our way of life, there is one thing he is dead right about. Something strange is happening to the earth’s climate. Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav, and the tsunamis in the Asian Pacific may be just the tip of the iceberg in terms of imminent climatic threats to the world, and should give us pause to consider whether or not rebuilding New Orleans is really such a good idea.

While Gustav’s bark proved to be much worse than its bite, the fact that the collective consciousness viewed it as a serious enough threat to halt a political convention over a thousand miles away speaks volumes. People are genuinely concerned about whether New Orleans can survive as a city. With each successive season, and despite Herculean feats of engineering, the sea takes a little more of the city back into its bosom.

Many have mused about the significance of these storms as encroachments on New Orleans. Some moralists have even gone as far as to say that the hurricanes are God’s punishment to the people of New Orleans for their decadent ways. Others have claimed that the spate of bad storms in the Atlantic are a result of global warming caused by the overuse of carbon-based fuels. Nature, they argue, is correcting the imbalance. Still others, the armchair philosophers among us, reason that everything is change, that land turns to sea, water to air, and so on. Climatic changes barely get a rise out of these stoics.

But whatever one’s perspective, whether moral, philosophical or scientific, it is obvious that change is afoot. Anyone who is humble enough to observe the signs and obey the message they portend can see that New Orleans will eventually be snatched back into the sea. This begs the question: Why go back? Why try to rebuild a city that is doomed? As human beings and as a country it seems we all have a hard time letting go. We think that our wealth and blessings are proof of our control over nature, when in actuality we are as subject to the whims of nature as any civilization that came before us.

Every onlooker is either a coward or a traitor
— Franz Fanon, Wretched of the Earth

Under Cover of Gustav

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) decision to suspend Republican convention activities and turn attention to helping people along the Gulf Coast deal with the potentially destructive effects of Hurricane Gustav is the right thing to do. In doing so, he not only avoids the incongruous image of fat cats partying it up while others suffer, but he shows that he puts his country ahead of his party. He has seized this crisis as an opportunity to demonstrate, rather than just talk about, his leadership abilities.

Hurricane Gustav also gives President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney a perfect excuse for avoiding the convention, where their presence might be less than welcome. Both the president and the vice president have suffered in the polls of late, and could only harm the Republicans’ chances of swaying voters who are disappointed in their leadership if they were to show up to the convention.

Furthermore, the Bush administration took a serious blow to its credibility in the aftermath of the government’s mishandling of relief efforts leading up to and after Hurricane Katrina. Many blamed the situation on a lack of competence in the leadership at FEMA, whose administrator was not a professional disaster relief expert, but a political appointee. Whether the media’s characterization was correct or not, the impression that the administration cared more about politics than the well-being of American citizens has been hard to erase.

Sen. McCain is asking Americans to elect him to the office because he will put the country first. In turning attention to the people suffering from Hurricane Gustav, McCain puts his money where his mouth is. It doesn’t hurt that avoiding an appearance by the current administration at the convention helps him deflect Democrats’ assertions that he is merely offering more of the same.

Palin in Comparison

Republicans play the wildest of their trump cards

The choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) as his running mate shows that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will not be placed in a box by Democrats in this election. In choosing a little-known, young female governor from a state with only three electoral votes, Sen. McCain caught everyone off guard: the Democrats, the media and especially the Republican Party. The shocked and awed faces of pundits on today’s news programs, the stammering hosts and the inability to really calculate the implications of McCain’s veep choice suggested that it was a no-look pass that fooled not only the opposing team, but the intended recipients as well.

But once the shock wears off, and once the hoopla dies down, the risks of representational politics will become apparent. If the Republicans think that they will sway female Clinton supporters with a strongly pro-life woman, they could be in store for a long winter.

Let’s be clear: The Alaska governor pales in comparison with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) record of service and achievement. On the other hand, if Republicans are able to effectively draw attention to Palin’s executive experience in cutting cronyism, reducing government spending and shepherding alternative energy initiatives in Alaska, a major energy-producing state, they may have just the ticket to counter the Obama juggernaut. Furthermore, the choice of Palin may help to neutralize Sen. Obama’s argument that change needs to come to Washington, rather than from it.

Choosing Gov. Palin is without question a risky move that may pay off big or fail miserably. Her executive experience, although slim, stands out among a slate of candidates who have spent all of their political lives in legislative chambers. However, with the executive powers greatly expanded under President Bush, many would argue that the chief executive might benefit from a consensus-building mindset that former legislators would bring to the office; on the other hand, as vice president, Gov. Palin probably won’t have to worry about taking the call at 3 a.m.

Got the Bull by Its Horns

By Corralling the Clintons’ Ego and Ambition, Obama Has Gained Invaluable Allies

DENVER — There is a reason why President Bill Clinton is still considered the best politician of his generation, and he showed it last night, delivering both the strongest endorsement of Sen. Obama and the most stinging rebuke of Bush and McCain heard thus far at the Democratic convention. President Clinton was at the top of his game — even to the point of one-upping his wife’s speech of the night before. The words that come to mind when considering his remarks are; smart, effective, convincing and winning.

What seemed at first to be a spineless capitulation to the Clintons’ outrageous demands by allowing them two nights at the convention now appears to have been a brilliantly executed strategy to turn the Clintons’ anger, frustration and naked ambition into energy Sen. Obama can use to propel himself to the presidency. No matter what the Clintons do from here on out, whether they snipe and hedge, or obstruct and bother, the fact remains that they not only threw their support unreservedly behind Obama, they, as a team, clearly spelled out what the former president feels makes Obama the most qualified candidate to lead this country.

President Clinton effectively accomplished this by comparing criticisms of his own candidacy (we all knew he would talk about himself) in 1992, when he was roundly dismissed as too young and inexperienced to lead the country. In doing this, President Clinton’s strategy was to instantly turn youth and inexperience into an asset rather than an impediment to leadership.

If nothing else, the events of yesterday provided the catharsis Sen. Clinton wanted. It was evident from the tears, cheers and jeers of the delegates that the Democratic Party has finally come together; the divisions, at least for the moment, have been healed. By capitalizing on the Clintons’ ambitions, letting them shine, Obama conquered his enemies by turning them into allies. And in the process Sen. Obama proved that while he might be on the ropes, he is certainly no dope.

Hillary’s Tepid Endorsement

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s speech last night before the delegates at the Democratic National Convention was about as good as it gets when it comes to convention speeches. She managed to combine the rhetorical flourish of campaign oratory with the hard-nosed commanding presence of a general leading her troops into battle. She exhorted the crowd to help America get down to business; pass healthcare reform to cover the uninsured; build a world-class education system that is accessible to more Americans; and return America to the economic prosperity it enjoyed under the leadership of President Bill Clinton.

Furthermore, Sen. Clinton (D-N.Y.) made it clear that electing John McCain would constitute a setback. Electing Barack Obama, she acknowledged, was the right thing to do, if only because leaving the country in the hands of Republicans for four more years would make us worse off. And, well, that was about it.

Curiously absent from Sen. Clinton’s speech was any mention of Barack Obama’s fitness or ability to lead this country going forward. Hillary failed to specifically spell out what she believed to be the facets of Sen. Obama’s character and experience that makes him capable of delivering the future the Democrats envision for this country. Compare Hillary’s speech with President Clinton’s remarks earlier that day, and the Clintons’ diabolical intentions begin to emerge.

Bill Clinton posed a hypothetical question: When faced with the choice between two candidates, one whose policies you agree with completely but whom you don’t believe can deliver, or another, whose policies may be only half-agreeable but who can actually deliver, whom would you choose? In other words, Bill Clinton seemed to suggest that electing Sen. Obama would lead to a complete loss, while electing McCain would at least provide a modest gain.

Bill and Hillary’s coordinated attack on Sen. Obama was so skillful and calculating that one cannot help but admire the depths of their betrayal to their own party’s success in this election. But a betrayal it certainly is.

Democratic Convention Update

Day One: A Missed Opportunity

DENVER — With the exception of Sen. Edward Kennedy’s (D-Mass.) moving appearance and a well-played video and speech by Michelle Obama, last night was forgettable. For the most part, Democrats were able to succeed with their primary mission on Night No. 1 — humanizing the man they want as president. In that regard, they scored Olympic gold. Obama’s appearance on screen just before his wife’s remarks was a nice production that would have made Hollywood jealous.

But the rest of Monday’s program was lackluster at best. It started before Howard Dean even kicked off the proceedings. Republicans have done a nice job out here causing the Democrats fits. If you scored success simply on the number of GOP surrogates appearing on cable dayside shows, the Dems lost miserably. If I were Jim Axelrod, I’d demote my communications director for letting a McCain spokesman come on air and discuss the Arizona senator’s veep pick — while Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was speaking! Perhaps that says more about the quality of her remarks …

And why were Democrats leaving their stars in the locker rooms while untrained “regular Joes” were on screen? That may be smart for a local mayoral race, but when primetime networks drop millions for production and send their own anchors and stars to Denver, they’re thinking one thing — talent! As much as they eschew the “infomercial” quality of these grand events, they do want someone who has stage presence to share the latest talkers.

First days are usually disappointments at most conventions, but I’m betting the Republicans in St. Paul, Minn., are watching closely and learning from the mistakes made yesterday here in Denver. The show must go on, however! And somehow I sense the buildup to Thursday’s speech will be momentous. Now if they could just get those pesky Clintons out of the picture …

Is It Enough?

Sen. Edward Kennedy’s (D-Mass.) appearance last night as I watched it from the convention was nothing short of miraculous. He appeared strong and spoke with clarity and conviction, an amazing feat for someone who had just two months ago undergone radical brain surgery. It is a testament to both his belief in Sen. Obama and his commitment to a vision for this country that he rose from his deathbed and traveled over a thousand miles to speak at the opening night of the Democratic convention.

Michelle Obama did exactly what was expected of her and beyond. Her words demonstrated the strongest of commitments to family and faith. It was clear in the speech that the Michelle Obama of 15 years ago has evolved into someone who loves America, and is as patriotic to our ideals and principles as anyone on the political stage. In fact, without Michelle Obama and Ted Kennedy, the Democrats would have wasted the evening. There was little else of substance and little in the way of defining issues, and, surprisingly, little or no mention of John McCain and the Republicans.

With that said, there are some cold facts that Barack Obama and the Democrats need to face. The candidates are in a statistical dead heat, locked at about 47 percent in the most recent polls. The selection of Joe Biden as a running mate did not give Obama the bounce he was expecting. Nor does anyone expect Biden to bring any state (other than his small home state of Delaware) to Obama’s winning column.

While Michelle Obama’s speech seemed to connect with the delegates in attendance, who would have cheered for her no matter what she said, it is unclear whether or not her message resonated with the farmers, workers and those outside the convention hall who will be responsible for electing the next president of the United States.

Are you now convinced more than ever that Sen. Barack Obama is your choice for president in November? Let us know the impact.

Wise VP Choice

DENVER — Kudos to Barack Obama for making the best of his vice presidential selection; in choosing Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.), Obama has chosen a running mate whose strengths complement Obama's weaknesses.

Obviously, Sen. Biden is an experienced politician, and is known for being a bareknuckle fighter on the issues. Obama has been criticized of late for being somewhat reluctant to fight back against blistering attacks from the McCain camp. Sen. Biden, if his past is any indication, will have no such reservations. This makes sense, because it allows Obama to go on looking presidential and staying above the fray, while having an attack dog at his side to go after the other side with a vengeance.

The other way in which Biden helps Obama is by deflecting criticism that Obama is an elitist and out of touch with the country. This will be especially helpful in the swing states, where Obama has had a tough time building support among working-class Americans.

Biden, although a Washington insider, nonetheless returned to his district in Delaware every day; unlike other senators, he did not use his position to enrich himself personally — he is said to be one of the five poorest senators. Biden is a true populist.

Sen. Biden also deflects the accusation that Obama lacks experience. Sen. Biden’s guidance and judgment may play well to undecided voters who find Obama’s age and inexperience somewhat unsettling.

Finally, and importantly, Obama did not cave in to pressure to pick Hilary Clinton; something that shows his toughness and independence. Given the cards he has been given, this was a hand well played.

Blogging from the Conventions

I'm checking in from Houston en route to Denver for the Democratic convention starting Monday, where I will be broadcasting live and direct on our national radio show, which plays locally in Washington on CBS affiliate Heaven 1580 a.m. (www.heaven1580am.com) live from 4-6 p.m. EST daily, and is replayed on XM Radio Power 169 from 9-10 p.m. EST (and is rebroadcast at 5 a.m. EST).

While on the road, I'll have a few of my favorite people with me, notably the raging libertarian and Baltimore entrepreneur David Modell. He'll be co-hosting with me and offering every defense possible of his libertarian ideology. Whatever happens, next week promises to be lots and lots of fun!

From there we take the show to Minneapolis, the week of September 1-5, where we will attend the Republican convention. It's always so much fun to catch up with old friends, and there will be friends aplenty in attendance. Hopefully we can snag a couple of notables for off-the-cuff interviews. It will be interesting to contrast the tone of the Republican convention with the rock concert that they're promising in Denver.

But to our faithful Pundits Bloggers, we want to extend an invitation to respond to my blog with issues that arise during the convention that you'd like me to cover or investigate further. Since I'll be right there, it would be my honor to be your eyes and ears at both conventions.

Also, let me know what you think about the candidates' performance and your impressions of the direction the country is going. And if there is someone you would like interviewed for the blog, just let us know.

We will blog several times daily from both conventions keeping you posted on all the critical issues facing both candidates as they march towards the White House. I feel we're capable of interviewing all the so-called players at both conventions, including the presidential candidates themselves.