The Palin Factor

Gov. Palin’s strengths:

1) Palin connects with working-class white women, the same group that delivered nine of 14 primaries to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in the primary stretch run.

2) Palin, with multiple young children at home, connotes motherhood and family; this provides armor, which the Democrats will find tough to pierce. We all have mothers, most of whom we adore, and would never openly criticize.

3) Palin closes the “history” gap; her success is barrier-breaking; this deflates the significance of a Barack Obama presidency.

4) The Democrats are foreclosed from attacking Palin on experience, as Sen. Obama’s (D-Ill.) paucity of statewide experience and absence of executive experience insulate her.

5) The natural arrogance of many Democratic partisans is put on display. They face the potentially fatal quandary of needing the support of working-class white women, but being disconnected from them stylistically, linguistically and culturally.

6) Palin “doubles down” on change: creating a “change ticket” in a change election. It also says that with their first presidential-level decisions, Obama opted for the status quo, while McCain made a bold, change-oriented move.

Furthermore, there are only three major hurdles left for Palin to confront: 1) the debates (which could doom or elevate Palin); 2) an “October surprise”; and 3) the ground game (about which I’m concerned, as Obama obviously has a more entrenched and disciplined grassroots organization). However, McCain just got the “enthusiasm injection” to help build his own grassroots effort.